A workflow for deriving jurisidictional risk-allocated deforestation mapping compliant with Verra’s VMD0055 (V1.1) module and the VM0048 (V1.0) consolidated methodology. This includes baseline estimates of forest change and jurisdictional allocated deforestation.
This assessment develops a spatially explicit deforestation risk map and allocation framework for Bong County, Liberia, following Verra’s VM0048 methodology requirements. The analysis integrates the baseline emissions estimates developed in the previous workflow with spatial risk modeling to allocate jurisdictional deforestation across the landscape based on empirically-derived risk factors.
This analysis maintains consistency with the baseline emissions assessment by focusing exclusively on Bong County (8,772 km²), located in west-central Liberia. The county encompasses diverse forest-agricultural landscapes within the Upper Guinea Forest biodiversity hotspot, representing typical West African deforestation pressures including:
Agricultural expansion (primarily rice and cassava)
Small-scale logging and charcoal production
Road development and settlement expansion
Mining activities (iron ore and artisan mining)
2. Method
Four-step process:
Covariate Development: Process infrastructure, demographic, and biophysical risk data layers
Statistical Evaluation: Check covariate magnitude to historical deforestation
Model Development: Empirically weighted risk model generation
Deforestation Allocation: Spatial distribution of baseline deforestation rates based on risk surfaces
# Import & reproject to OSM grid systemsaoi_country = geodata::gadm(country="LBR", level=0, path="./assets/AOI") |> sf::st_as_sf() |> sf::st_transform("EPSG:3857")aoi_states = geodata::gadm(country="LBR", level=1, path="./assets/AOI") |> sf::st_as_sf() |> dplyr::filter(NAME_1 =="Bong") |> sf::st_transform("EPSG:3857")crs_master = sf::st_crs(aoi_country)# Total extentarea_km2 =as.numeric(sf::st_area(aoi_states)) /1e6cat("Study Area: Bong County, Liberia\n")
In Liberia, the official definition of forest land is provided by the Forestry Development Authority (Government of Liberia 2019), including areas of land that meet the following criteria:
Canopy cover of minimum 30%;
Canopy height of minimum 5m or the capacity to reach it;
The following spatial covariates were processed as potential drivers of deforestation risk. Covariates were merged between sociodemographic and geographic datasets surrounding the project area and national level datasets beyond the project area in order to enable jurisdictions analysis.
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Built Environment
# Check OSM data & derive bbox windowosmdata::available_features()
NA [1] "4wd_only" "abandoned"
NA [3] "abutters" "access"
NA [5] "addr" "addr:*"
NA [7] "addr:city" "addr:conscriptionnumber"
NA [9] "addr:country" "addr:county"
NA [11] "addr:district" "addr:flats"
NA [13] "addr:full" "addr:hamlet"
NA [15] "addr:housename" "addr:housenumber"
NA [17] "addr:inclusion" "addr:interpolation"
NA [19] "addr:place" "addr:postbox"
NA [21] "addr:postcode" "addr:province"
NA [23] "addr:state" "addr:street"
NA [25] "addr:subdistrict" "addr:suburb"
NA [27] "addr:unit" "admin_level"
NA [29] "aeroway" "agricultural"
NA [31] "alcohol" "alt_name"
NA [33] "amenity" "area"
NA [35] "atv" "backward"
NA [37] "barrier" "basin"
NA [39] "bdouble" "bicycle"
NA [41] "bicycle_road" "biergarten"
NA [43] "boat" "border_type"
NA [45] "boundary" "brand"
NA [47] "bridge" "building"
NA [49] "building:colour" "building:fireproof"
NA [51] "building:flats" "building:levels"
NA [53] "building:material" "building:min_level"
NA [55] "building:part" "building:soft_storey"
NA [57] "bus" "bus_bay"
NA [59] "bus:lanes" "busway"
NA [61] "capacity" "carriage"
NA [63] "castle_type" "change"
NA [65] "charge" "clothes"
NA [67] "construction" "construction_date"
NA [69] "construction#Railways" "covered"
NA [71] "craft" "crossing"
NA [73] "crossing:island" "cuisine"
NA [75] "cutting" "cycle_rickshaw"
NA [77] "cycleway" "cycleway:left"
NA [79] "cycleway:left:oneway" "cycleway:right"
NA [81] "cycleway:right:oneway" "denomination"
NA [83] "destination" "diet:*"
NA [85] "direction" "dispensing"
NA [87] "disused" "dog"
NA [89] "drinking_water" "drinking_water:legal"
NA [91] "drive_in" "drive_through"
NA [93] "ele" "electric_bicycle"
NA [95] "electrified" "embankment"
NA [97] "embedded_rails" "emergency"
NA [99] "end_date" "energy_class"
NA [101] "entrance" "est_width"
NA [103] "fee" "female"
NA [105] "fire_object:type" "fire_operator"
NA [107] "fire_rank" "food"
NA [109] "foot" "footway"
NA [111] "ford" "forestry"
NA [113] "forward" "frequency"
NA [115] "frontage_road" "fuel"
NA [117] "full_name" "gauge"
NA [119] "gender_segregated" "golf_cart"
NA [121] "goods" "gutter"
NA [123] "hand_cart" "hazard"
NA [125] "hazmat" "healthcare"
NA [127] "healthcare:counselling" "healthcare:speciality"
NA [129] "height" "hgv"
NA [131] "highway" "historic"
NA [133] "horse" "hot_water"
NA [135] "hov" "ice_road"
NA [137] "incline" "industrial"
NA [139] "inline_skates" "inscription"
NA [141] "int_name" "internet_access"
NA [143] "junction" "kerb"
NA [145] "landuse" "lane_markings"
NA [147] "lanes" "lanes:bus"
NA [149] "lanes:psv" "layer"
NA [151] "leaf_cycle" "leaf_type"
NA [153] "leisure" "lhv"
NA [155] "lit" "loc_name"
NA [157] "location" "male"
NA [159] "man_made" "max_age"
NA [161] "max_level" "maxaxleload"
NA [163] "maxheight" "maxlength"
NA [165] "maxspeed" "maxstay"
NA [167] "maxweight" "maxwidth"
NA [169] "military" "min_age"
NA [171] "min_level" "minspeed"
NA [173] "mofa" "moped"
NA [175] "motor_vehicle" "motorboat"
NA [177] "motorcar" "motorcycle"
NA [179] "motorroad" "mountain_pass"
NA [181] "mtb:description" "mtb:scale"
NA [183] "name" "name_1"
NA [185] "name_2" "name:left"
NA [187] "name:right" "narrow"
NA [189] "nat_name" "natural"
NA [191] "nickname" "noexit"
NA [193] "non_existent_levels" "nudism"
NA [195] "office" "official_name"
NA [197] "old_name" "oneway"
NA [199] "oneway:bicycle" "oneway:bus"
NA [201] "openfire" "opening_hours"
NA [203] "opening_hours:drive_through" "operator"
NA [205] "orientation" "oven"
NA [207] "overtaking" "parking"
NA [209] "parking:condition" "parking:lane"
NA [211] "passenger_lines" "passing_places"
NA [213] "place" "power"
NA [215] "power_supply" "priority"
NA [217] "priority_road" "produce"
NA [219] "proposed" "proposed:name"
NA [221] "protected_area" "psv"
NA [223] "psv:lanes" "public_transport"
NA [225] "railway" "railway:preserved"
NA [227] "railway:track_ref" "recycling_type"
NA [229] "ref" "ref_name"
NA [231] "reg_name" "religion"
NA [233] "religious_level" "rental"
NA [235] "residential" "roadtrain"
NA [237] "route" "sac_scale"
NA [239] "sauna" "service"
NA [241] "service_times" "shelter_type"
NA [243] "shop" "short_name"
NA [245] "shoulder" "shower"
NA [247] "side_road" "sidewalk"
NA [249] "site" "ski"
NA [251] "smoking" "smoothness"
NA [253] "social_facility" "sorting_name"
NA [255] "speed_pedelec" "sport"
NA [257] "start_date" "step_count"
NA [259] "substation" "surface"
NA [261] "tactile_paving" "tank"
NA [263] "taxi" "tidal"
NA [265] "toilets" "toilets:wheelchair"
NA [267] "toll" "topless"
NA [269] "tourism" "tourist_bus"
NA [271] "tracks" "tracktype"
NA [273] "traffic_calming" "traffic_sign"
NA [275] "trail_visibility" "trailblazed"
NA [277] "trailblazed:visibility" "trailer"
NA [279] "tunnel" "turn"
NA [281] "type" "unisex"
NA [283] "usage" "vehicle"
NA [285] "vending" "voltage"
NA [287] "water" "wheelchair"
NA [289] "wholesale" "width"
NA [291] "winter_road" "wood"
NA Deleting source `./03_Spatial_Data/POP/places_merged.shp' failed
NA Writing layer `places_merged' to data source
NA `./03_Spatial_Data/POP/places_merged.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
NA Creating or updating layer places_merged failed.
NA Deleting source `./03_Spatial_Data/POP/buildings_merged.shp' failed
NA Writing layer `buildings_merged' to data source
NA `./03_Spatial_Data/POP/buildings_merged.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
NA Creating or updating layer buildings_merged failed.